Imagine We’re Writing a Dystopian Screenplay

In a recent survey, 48% of teachers polled say that in the last thirty days, they have thought about quitting their jobs. Thirty-four percent said that they are thinking about leaving the field (Forbes Magazine, “Why Education is About to Reach a Cris of Epic Porportions”). Think about that. What happens to a society if many teachers walk out en masse? If even a fraction of that 34% actually follow through? Schools have already been running with widespread staffing shortages, so there is currently zero margin. An abrupt departure of even 5-10%  would be devasting. To compound matters, fewer people than ever – understandably – want to enter the field. Here is another article talking about universities that have closed their education programs due to flagging interest.

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I started writing this week’s essay unpacking these disturbing facts…but I’m going to set that draft aside for now. Most of us formulate our thoughts better through reflection and discussion, right? Instead of me waxing on about this, let’s build our understanding together. I want to know what you think. It is hard for us to imagine a major disruption in schooling – then again, maybe not so much after the chaos of the past two years. While Covid has been a huge stressor on everyone, much of the downward trending in teaching precedes the pandemic. Covid has just sped up the timeline. It would be a mistake to believe that we’ll soon be “getting back to normal”.

If contemplating this hits too close to home, let’s instead imagine that we’re writing a dystopian screenplay about a fictional society. We’ll start with these questions. Please add your responses in the comments to help us develop the picture.

• If, in the next three years, significant teacher shortages occur, what will that look like? Specifically.
• What are the short term outcomes of that reality? How would it force school to change from what it is now?
• What if the problem persists for 10 years? 20?
• What does this mean for the economy and the work force?
• And what do we need to do to turn this around?